California winegrowers prepare vineyards for a wet El Niño winter
Wine grape growers on California’s Central Coast and North Coast are preparing for a strong El Niño, with storms forecast from December 2026 through March 2027. The outlook cited by MyAgLife points to well-above-normal rainfall in Paso Robles, Santa Barbara and the Santa Rosa area, making erosion the immediate concern.
Rainfall forecast and erosion risk
MyAgLife reported that Central Coast and North Coast wine grape growers were preparing for a strong El Niño, with storms expected from December 2026 through March 2027. The forecasting model cited in the report projected rainfall at 211% of the seasonal norm for Paso Robles, 226% for Santa Barbara and 173% for the Santa Rosa area. Growers’ principal concern was erosion, especially in drier regions where soils are less accustomed to major storms.2
Rich Casale, an erosion specialist with the USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service, described cover crops as the gold standard for erosion control. He also said that over 50% of the practices he sees are installed incorrectly or placed in the wrong location.2
Preparation time and a qualified flood risk
An early end to the harvest gave growers more time to inspect slopes, roads and drainage, establish cover crops and review erosion-control installations before the first major storms. MyAgLife recommended that installations be checked by the Natural Resources Conservation Service or another qualified specialist.2
The report also presented a conditional risk: if vines bud as early as they did in spring 2026, prolonged flooding through March 2027 could reduce oxygen around the roots and disrupt flowering. It noted that the University of California Agriculture and Natural Resources Disaster Blog had assembled flood-preparedness resources, and that the USDA changed its Tree Assistance Program, which covers vine losses, in July 2026; growers were advised to ask their local Farm Service Agency office how those changes apply to vines.2
Sources
Written by the Dionysus editors from the sources above.
