European Commission forecasts Italy’s 2026 wine production at 41.1 million hectolitres

DG AGRI’s estimates for Europe’s three largest producers

The European Commission’s Directorate-General for Agriculture and Rural Development (DG AGRI) estimates that Italy will produce 41.1 million hectolitres of wine in 2026. The forecast, updated on 2 November, compares with 37.5 million hectolitres for Spain and 33.8 million for France.¹

If confirmed, production in all three countries would remain substantially below their historical averages. Italy, Spain and France nevertheless account together for about 80% of total European Union wine production.¹

Italy awaits official declarations

Italy’s usual September harvest estimates from Ismea, Assoenologi and Unione Italiana Vini were not issued in 2026. According to WineNews, the decision was reportedly intended to avoid publishing preliminary numbers that might differ considerably from the eventual totals, as occurred in recent years. With the harvest effectively completed throughout Italy, DG AGRI’s figures are currently the only available estimates.¹

Official Italian data could be derived from the grape-harvest declarations that wineries are legally required to file by 30 November, unless the deadline is extended. Alternatively, the figures may come from wine and must production declarations, due by 15 December unless extensions or delays intervene. Similar delays in previous years have sometimes postponed the release of data until February of the following year.¹

Lower output and market balance

WineNews reports broad agreement within the sector that lower production is needed to bring supply and demand closer to balance, meaning that reduced output may not be entirely adverse under current market conditions. The publication also recalled that singer-songwriter Lucio Dalla was a small wine producer: his Stronzetto dell’Etna label came from vineyards surrounding his villa in Milo.¹